17 Nov 17 / Friday
Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA), a Pakistani think tank has highlighted that recent growing Indian aggression against Pakistan is a pointer in the direction that India is likely to act more belligerently after joining the grand alliances like Indo-Pacific alliance. Speaking on PIIA 70th anniversary, former ambassador Munir Akram said that increasing ceasefire violations along the LoC, threats to launch “surgical strikes”, “Cold Start” Doctrine, and threats of a “limited war” against Pakistan could lead to nuclear flareup specially in back drop of Indo-US alliance. Playing Pakistan’s time tested nuclear card he said the world community, had a vital interest in preventing a nuclear war in South Asia and as such, must hasten a resolution of the Kashmir dispute and balanced arms control and disarmament measures between the two countries.
Historically, Pakistan has always played its nuclear card well, whenever its strategic interests have been threatened. However, dynamics of nuclear balancing by Pakistan against India is changing fast. Reacting to North Korea’s nuclear test prominent Pakistani scientist had said that North Korean Nuclear technology was far advanced than the Pakistani technology; therefore, reports of Pakistan’s collusion were not true. In other words, Pak admitted inferiority of its primitive nuclear arsenal. Pakistan has increasingly felt threatened on India joining the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). It feels that India will now have the access to cutting edge nuclear technologies, not available to Pakistan which will lead to vast nuclear assymatry. Therefore, it is continuously pressuring China to forcefully backup its claim its entry into NSG.
Pakistan now fears the entry of more nations into Indo-Pacific alliance. As per media reports in Pakistan, recent meetings in the Philippines of East Asian countries as well as some major powers are important in that they were the venue for what is clearly a new emerging Indo-Pacific alliance, which is going to be the most important arena of geopolitical activity in 21st century. There are two possible alliances, that has the potential of reaching the hyper-power level. A Russia-India-China alliance or a US-India-Japan-Vietnam-Australia-Indonesia-South Korea partnership are two foreseeable emerging scenarios. Given Doklam stand-off between India and China, as also the ever more comprehensive relationship between Islamabad and Beijing, it is unlikely that a Russia-India-China alliance would take off. That leaves the distinct possibility for the second alliance to take shape and this is what has un-nerved the Pakistan to no end.